Washington (EFE).- The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank (WB) kicked off their spring meetings on Monday with the complex task of projecting the immediate global future amid the uncertain outcome of the US-Israel war against Iran, after a month and a half with the Strait of Hormuz virtually closed, despite a fragile truce.
On Thursday, at the meetings’ opening event, Kristalina Georgieva, the IMF’s managing director, warned that central banks must be prepared to raise interest rates and tighten policies if the war against Iran leads to significant inflationary pressures, and added that its impact already appears to be affecting supply chains.
Georgieva previously indicated that the forecasts in the World Economic Outlook Report, to be released on Tuesday, will lower global growth projections due to the conflict in the Middle East.
The Managing Director noted that before the outbreak of the war on February 28, the global economy had shown great resilience to the impact of aggressive US trade policy, supported by strong investment in the Artificial Intelligence (AI) sector. However, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz will undeniably weigh down global GDP.
In a joint statement issued on Monday by the IMF, the WB, and the International Energy Agency, the organizations stated that «the impact of the war is substantial, global, and highly asymmetric, disproportionately affecting energy importers, in particular low-income countries. The shock has led to higher oil, gas and fertilizer prices, triggering concerns about food security and job losses as well.»
Georgieva affirmed that the depth of the war’s macroeconomic impact will depend on the stability of the seemingly fragile ceasefire agreed upon recently between Washington and Tehran. This is compounded by the lack of agreement following 21 hours of negotiations in Pakistan between envoys of US President Donald Trump and Tehran, which ended without progress and only served to entrench each side in its «red lines.»
This week’s meetings, which will bring together Finance and Economy Ministers from various countries, including members of the G7 and G20, will serve to analyze the scope of the energy shock and the potential ramifications for monetary and fiscal policy, as well as financial flows.
The conversations are taking place with the Strait of Ormuz still closed to merchant, crude, and gas traffic, a situation that continues to generate great nervousness and adds to other disruptions such as the Trump administration’s tariff war. EFE
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