By María Carcaboso Abrié
Bangkok, May 1 (EFE).- Air traffic in the Asia-Pacific region has dropped by about 10 percent since the outbreak of the conflict involving Iran, as soaring jet fuel prices force airlines to cut routes and capacity, industry analysts say.
The cost of aviation fuel in Asia, benchmarked to Singapore, surged from roughly $90 per barrel to more than $230 in early March before easing slightly, according to S&P Global. Prices remain well above pre-conflict levels.
The premium for jet fuel in Singapore reached a record high in late March, as buyers rushed to secure supplies amid logistical disruptions and shortages.
Zameer Yusof, an analyst at Kpler, said Asia faces structural vulnerabilities not seen in Europe, including lower stockpiles and limited coordination on emergency reserves.
Fuel accounts for up to 30 percent of airline operating costs, according to the International Air Transport Association (IATA), forcing carriers to pass on costs through surcharges while cutting less profitable routes.
Traffic Decline and Rising Costs
Yusof described a 10 percent drop in regional air traffic as “realistic,” warning that if disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz persist, fuel inventories could tighten further.
Airlines are already adjusting.
Japan’s largest carriers, All Nippon Airways (ANA) and Japan Airlines (JAL), introduced fuel surcharges earlier than planned, with increases of up to 75 percent and 93 percent, respectively.
However, analysts say surcharges alone cannot offset the sharp rise in costs, forcing airlines to cut capacity and prioritize long-haul routes over less profitable services.
Southeast Asia Hit Hardest
Airlines in Southeast Asia, many heavily reliant on tourism, are among the hardest hit.
Carriers in countries such as Vietnam and the Philippines are facing fuel shortages and reducing flight schedules by up to 15 percent, according to aviation consultancy Cirium.
Low-cost carrier AirAsia has announced surcharges for its long-haul arm and is restructuring routes to focus on higher-demand markets.
Meanwhile, Vietnam Airlines has begun canceling domestic flights, while VietJet Air is preparing further schedule reductions, potentially ranging from 8 percent to 30 percent, according to industry estimates.
China’s Strategic Position
Analysts say China holds a relative advantage due to larger fuel reserves and its role as a major exporter of aviation fuel.
To protect domestic supply, Beijing has restricted exports since March, though limited sales continue through diplomatic channels.
With peak travel season approaching, experts warn that prolonged disruption could lead to further flight cuts and more grounded aircraft across the region. EFE
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