By Rostyslav Averchuk
Lviv (EFE).- The ongoing Ukrainian counter-offensive near Lyman is disrupting Russian plans to seize control of the entire Donetsk region and its key bastions, Sloviansk and Kramatorsk, while the Ukrainian situation on the front continues to improve.
The village of Shandryholove, located north of Lyman, became the latest capture by Ukraine’s forces, its 66th Brigade informed on Tuesday as the defending army continued to reveal more details of the operation after months of silence.
According to Ukraine’s Third Corps, the counter-attack managed to recover over 40 square kilometers (24 square miles) of territory in this area in the second stage of the offensive, named “Vivaldi” after the Italian composer.
Damaging Russia’s plans
Over 125 square kilometers (77 square miles) of Ukrainian territory have been recaptured so far, yet the significance of the operation extends beyond the numbers, the Corps commander, General Andriy Biletsky, said last week.
Biletsky noted that Russian forces in the area threatened to surround Sloviansk and Kramatorsk from the north.
The Ukrainian operation has effectively disrupted this plan by “defeating and destroying” the northern Russian group, the general said.
This leaves Ukrainian forces in the best position in years, military analyst Oleksandr Kovalenko said in an analysis for the Information Resistance Group.
“Russian troops are incapable of conducting large-scale offensives to break through the defenses. They are also losing not just tens but hundreds of square kilometers of territory, returning to the positions they occupied in the fall of 2022,” Kovalenko explained, noting that Russia “is starting to lose the initiative” in the east of Ukraine.
This contrasts with Moscow’s claims in early September that it had captured Sviatohirsk. The city is northwest of Lyman and under Ukrainian control. According to the battlefield map by the DeepState analytical platform, it lies some 14 kilometers (8 miles) away from the frontline.
According to Kovalenko and hints from Biletsky, more progress will be announced soon, as Ukrainian forces are attacking the opponent south of Lyman, between Yampil and Nykyforivka.
Drones in focus
Although the Ukrainian army is short on infantry, its ongoing robotization has partially compensated for this shortage and has been key to the advances near Lyman.
According to the Third Corps, drones disrupted Russia’s command and communication lines, as well as logistics, in the area, while air defenses stopped Russian drones from detecting and countering the offensive.
Ukrainian land drones enable 80-90 % of supply and evacuation rides and have also been transported into Russia’s rear by aerial drones to attack there.
The unit said that the well-coordinated actions by drones and infantry allowed Ukrainian forces to catch Russian troops unaware north of Lyman.
At the same time, Russian forces maintain pressure in other parts of Donetsk, including Dobropillia, where one Ukrainian soldier faces six Russians, according to General Denys Prokopenko, head of another group of Ukrainian forces in the region.
Prokopenko warned that Russian forces accumulate armoured vehicles and prepare to launch large attacks, yet assured that Ukraine’s organized defense will not let the attempts succeed.
The tendency and risks
Currently, Ukraine controls some 20 % of the Donetsk region.
The predicted increase in mobilization in Russia will not translate into the invading army’s advances, Biletsky said, noting that it will lead to higher casualties among Russia’s recruits since the use of drones remains decisive on the battlefield.
Officially, Kyiv estimated Russia’s losses at over 40,000 a month, slightly higher than the monthly number of Moscow’s new recruits.
To sustain a positive tendency, Ukrainian forces need to retain the funding and support from the rear, analysts said, noting that Russia will keep trying to weaken the Ukrainian economy and infrastructure with missile and drone strikes.
“We simply keep doing our job,” Serhii Vashchuk, an officer of the 413th Unmanned Aerial Vehicles regiment “Raid,” told EFE.
“Our units both repel Russian attacks on the frontline and deal successful drone strikes deep into Russia’s territory,” he noted.EFE
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