By Rostyslav Averchuk
Lviv (EFE).- The prolongation of the war in the Middle East threatens to decrease or even halt vital supplies of air defense ammunition to Ukraine from the United States, while Kyiv seeks other ways to secure the means to intercept Russian missiles.
“Our stock of missiles is depleting. We need more PAC-3 missiles to be able to repel future attacks by the Russian aggressor,” Dmyro, chief engineer of a Patriot air defense system, underlined in a video released by Ukraine’s Air Force.
According to the crew, the US-made system intercepted over 40 ballistic missiles during Russia’s winter campaign against Ukraine’s energy system.
“We could have shot more if only we had enough ammunition,” said Pavlo, the unit’s deputy commander.
Against ballistic missiles
While Ukraine managed to avoid the collapse of its infrastructure despite limited ammunition supplies, Russia is preparing to strike more critical targets, especially those related to water supply and transportation, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has warned, citing intelligence reports.
Zelenskyy has emphasized in numerous statements over the last week that the massive use of air defense ammunition in the Middle East, estimated at hundreds to thousands, against an annual production of around 600, risks exacerbating the shortage for Ukraine.
Ukraine’s dependency on supplies for Patriots remains “total,” military analyst Oleksandr Kovalenko from the Information Resistance Group told EFE.
“While Ukraine has made much progress in developing short-range air defenses, it remains completely dependent on its western partners when it comes to mid-range and long-range systems,” he underlined.
The analyst views the aerial strikes as a key part of Russian military strategy, aimed at eroding Ukraine’s defense capability and inflicting psychological terror, especially while the frontline remains largely stalled.
Ballistic missiles are especially difficult to intercept due to their trajectory and high speed, posing a significant threat.
The US-made Patriot systems remain the only ones in Ukraine’s arsenal capable of shooting down such missiles. While Japan, Spain, Germany, Poland, the Netherlands, and Romania have also provided such systems or ammunition, deliveries depend mainly on the US, the key producer.
Although Zelenskyy said that supplies through the PURL system, funded by NATO members, have not been affected so far, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio acknowledged that they could be redirected depending on US priorities.
In search of solutions
The involvement of Ukraine’s specialists in repelling Iran’s aerial strikes against Middle East states could help prevent even more precious air defenses from being spent on cheap Iranian drones.
With no clarity on the end of the war in the Middle East, Ukraine is looking for other ways to secure its air defenses, with no easy solution in sight.
Ukraine’s calls for the US to allow it to produce missiles for Patriots, jointly with other countries, have so far gone unheeded.
«We are working to ensure that our Ukrainian production can reach a level where we will have the necessary components of the air defense system, all of them, including anti-ballistic ones,” Zelenskyy said last week, noting that “it is too early to disclose the details.»
The provision of US-made THAAD systems, even more advanced than Patriots, could be another option, Zelenskyy noted following his recent visit to the region to discuss defense cooperation.
However, this is unlikely in the near term, according to Ukraine’s Defense Express analytical center. The US currently has only eight such batteries, while Saudi Arabia and the UAE together have just three, some of which were damaged by Iranian strikes.
Ukraine may need to develop its own equivalent of the Patriots, Zelenskyy said, stressing that no approach should be ruled out. However, this could not be a quick solution, especially amid Russian strikes.
The stability of deliveries from the US or other partners remains Ukraine’s main hope to minimize destruction and casualties.
Ukraine will also continue striking at the production of missiles in Russia. If it cannot secure reliable protection against the ballistic missiles, it must reduce Russia’s ability to launch them, analysts noted. EFE
ra/dgp
