Sudan War: Stalemate deepens after three years

By Al Nur al Zaki

Khartoum, Apr 14 (EFE).- After three years of war, Sudan’s army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) appear locked in a military stalemate, reducing the likelihood of a decisive victory by either side and increasing pressure for a negotiated solution.

Since fighting erupted on Apr. 15, 2023, both forces have suffered heavy losses and exhausted much of their offensive capacity, leaving front lines largely frozen despite ongoing clashes in key regions.

Paramilitary forces initially seized Khartoum and vast areas of central and western Sudan as the army collapsed.

Government forces did not regain the capital until March 2025, shifting the momentum of the conflict, which has since remained largely stalled across much of the country, except in parts of the west.

«Both sides have exhausted their capacity to achieve a decisive military victory,» Sudanese security expert Ibrahim Abdelqader told EFE, predicting increased reliance on drones by both forces to prevent ground advances, particularly as fighting concentrates in the southwestern region of Kordofan.

Stalled fronts

Sudan is now effectively divided militarily: the RSF controls much of the western Darfur region, while the army dominates the east and north after expelling paramilitaries from Khartoum and other central areas.

A turning point came with the fall of Al Fasher, capital of North Darfur, which paramilitary forces captured last October after nearly two years of siege.

That victory gave the RSF effective control over a vast territory comparable in size to peninsular Spain, although three towns remain under army control, alongside areas where Sudan Liberation Movement forces loyal to Abdelwahid al Nur continue operating.

Since then, fighting has shifted to neighboring Kordofan, where both sides are contesting territory with the backing of allied armed groups and, according to Sudanese military authorities, mercenaries allegedly financed by the RSF.

Following their withdrawal from Khartoum, paramilitary forces deployed reinforcements to Kordofan, which links central Sudan to Darfur, and formed an alliance with the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-North (SPLM-N), which had previously remained outside the conflict.

A delicate moment

Clashes have also intensified in eastern Sudan after RSF-aligned forces captured Kurmuk, in Blue Nile state near the Ethiopian border.

Sudan’s government accuses Ethiopia of providing military and logistical support to the paramilitaries.

The army has repeatedly denounced «foreign intervention» in the war, accusing several countries, particularly the United Arab Emirates, of financing and supporting the RSF.

Abu Dhabi denies the allegations, despite accusations by human rights organizations and what the UN has described as credible reports.

Analysts have described the conflict as a «proxy war,» warning of growing risks to regional stability and to the security of the Red Sea and the Horn of Africa, areas of strategic importance for several countries.

Efforts to bring the parties to negotiations have repeatedly failed, including initiatives led by the so-called «Quartet,» the United States, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and the United Arab Emirates, although Sudan’s government has objected to the Emirati participation.

What now?

Recent battlefield setbacks prompted newly appointed Army Chief of Staff Yasser al Atta, considered a hardliner, to announce plans to create a large force to «liberate» Kordofan and Darfur using «advanced weaponry» that could alter the course of the conflict.

However, analyst Abdelqader said such a campaign would likely aim to «improve the negotiating position» of the army as talks may resume, at least to secure a humanitarian ceasefire.

Military expert Abdel Rahim also told EFE that the army missed an opportunity to advance into Kordofan and Darfur after retaking Khartoum, allowing paramilitary forces to regroup and entrench themselves in western Sudan.

Three years of war have left an estimated 400,000 people dead, according to US figures, pushed more than 21.2 million people into acute hunger and displaced about 14 million others, making Sudan the world’s worst displacement and hunger crisis, according to the United Nations. EFE

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