Putin’s power under fire amid stalled Ukraine war

Moscow, May 10 (EFE).- Russian President Vladimir Putin is facing growing signs of political and military strain more than three years into the war in Ukraine, with battlefield setbacks, economic pressures, and internal divisions fueling perceptions of weakening authority around the Kremlin.

Critics of the Kremlin argue that the Russian military campaign has stalled, while members of Putin’s inner circle increasingly appear focused on their own political survival rather than the country’s future.

According to analysts, one of the clearest signs of this perceived weakness emerged during Saturday’s Victory Day parade commemorating the Soviet Union’s defeat of Nazi Germany in World War II.

What is traditionally one of the Kremlin’s most symbolic annual events was described by some critics as a subdued display marked by heightened security concerns linked to the war in Ukraine.

Exiled journalist Igor Yakovenko referred to the event as a “Parade of Defeat,” arguing that Moscow’s security arrangements and fears of drone attacks highlighted Russia’s vulnerabilities rather than its strength.

The parade featured limited heavy weaponry, fewer international guests than in previous years, and strict security measures, including internet disruptions in parts of Moscow.

Analysts noted that fears of Ukrainian drone strikes reaching deep into Russian territory underscored concerns about the country’s internal security situation.

Growing tensions within the system Independent political analysts have increasingly suggested that the current political model built around Putin may be entering a period of instability.

Political commentator Alexander Baunov wrote recently that “Putin is losing his magic,” arguing that efforts to preserve power are instead accelerating political fragmentation.

Reports in both Russian and international media have pointed to tensions between Russia’s military leadership and various security agencies, including the Federal Security Service and the National Guard.

Observers have also noted growing speculation about internal rivalries among political elites, technocrats, and business figures close to the Kremlin.

Particular attention has focused on former Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, who lost influence after his dismissal in 2024 and amid corruption investigations involving several former associates.

Analysts also cite repeated internet shutdowns and restrictions as evidence of mounting government anxiety.

According to critics, such measures disrupt economic activity and affect millions of Russians who rely on digital services for work and income.

Military and economic pressures On the battlefield, Russian forces have struggled to secure major breakthroughs in eastern Ukraine, and analysts say Moscow’s long-standing objective of fully controlling the Donbas region remains unmet.

Independent Russian media outlets Meduza and Mediazona estimated that 352,000 Russian soldiers aged between 18 and 59 had been killed in action by December 2025, though official casualty figures remain undisclosed by Moscow.

At the same time, Russia has faced growing economic pressure. According to the report, oil and gas export revenues fell by 38.3% between January and April despite higher global oil prices linked to tensions involving Iran.

Baunov argued that Russia’s political system traditionally protects victorious leaders but can rapidly turn against those perceived as failing.

“In Russia, winners are not judged. Losers can be,” he wrote, suggesting that political accountability around Putin may already be taking shape. EFE

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