By Jose Luis Paniagua
International Desk, Dec 17 (EFE). – Conflicts are escalating across the globe, with violence, civilian casualties, and military spending all reaching new highs.
The year 2024 confirmed a troubling trend: an increasing reliance on war to address the challenges of a world in flux, seeking to adapt to a new global order.
From the Middle East to Ukraine, Sudan, and the Sahel, at least 59 conflicts persist worldwide.
A report by the Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO), published in June, highlights an upward trend in conflict stemming from the end of Cold War-era blocs, the erosion of democracy in many regions, and the limitations of post-World War II peace structures.
War in Numbers: Displacement, Deaths, and Defense Spending
By May 2024, the number of forcibly displaced people reached a record 130 million, according to the UN.
Civilian casualties, which saw a 72 percent increase in 2023, are expected to continue rising.
Military spending also hit new highs, doubling from $1.2 trillion in 2000 to $2.4 trillion in 2023, as reported by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI).
Additionally, the nuclear weapons stockpile stood at 12,121 warheads in January, with 3,904 of those deployed for potential use.
Global Conflict Intensity: A Growing Threat
The Conflict Intensity Index (CII) from Verisk Maplecroft revealed that global conflict now affects 4.6 percent of the world’s surface, a 65 percent increase from 2021.
The resurgence of conflict, particularly after the Arab Spring and the Syrian civil war, has become more pronounced since mid-decade, coinciding with events like Russia’s invasion of Crimea and the rise of Islamic State in the Middle East.
The Shifting Global Order: From Cold War to Present
Siri Aas Rustad, research director at the Peace Research Institute of Oslo (PRIO), told Efe that the world was relatively peaceful in the early 2000s, but conflicts began to intensify around 2015, particularly in Syria.
Rustad noted that although there have always been occasional major conflicts, there has been a significant increase in simultaneous global conflicts in recent years, with many now interconnected.
“Is this a coincidence, is this bad luck, is there anything else going on? What we have seen, especially in the last few days, is that things are connected. That has everything to do with the Ukraine conflict and the conflict in Gaza.”
Africa’s Turmoil: Democracy in Retreat
Another concerning trend is the retreat of democracy, particularly in regions like Africa, where military and economic factors, along with competition for resources, have contributed to instability.
Rustad pointed to the growing influence of Russia in West Africa, noting the decline of once-stable nations like Mali, which had previously been a model for international organizations. EFE
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