By Rostyslav Averchuk
Lviv (EFE).- Ukraine watches with concern the ongoing preparations for the joint military exercises by Russia and Belarus on the latter’s territory, as memories are fresh of the Russian offensive from Belarus at the start of the invasion.
«We are actively monitoring what is happening on the territory of Belarus, in particular, what concerns the announced joint exercises between Russia and Belarus,” Andriy Demchenko, spokesman of Ukraine’s border guard services, told Ukrainian TV on Monday.
The “Zapad-2025” drills, set to enter their active phase in September, will involve at least 13,000 Belarusian troops alongside an unspecified number of Russian forces.
According to Demchenko, currently, there are no sufficiently large Russian forces in Belarus to pose a threat to Ukraine.
However, he said that risks could escalate once the exercises intensify, potentially leading to «demonstrative actions» near Ukraine’s border.
Therefore, Ukraine is bolstering defenses along its northern frontier and preparing for all scenarios, Demchenko said.
A lingering threat
Any large concentration of Russia’s forces in Belarus is set to trigger alarm, over three years after its troops crossed the border to attack Kyiv and also used the Belarusian territory for logistics and evacuations. Large military drills had preceded the invasion.
“I am certain that the Russian Federation is planning to attack our territory during the exercises in Belarus,” Lieutenant Colonel Maksym Zhorin, deputy head of Ukraine’s Third Assault Brigade, wrote in Telegram last week.
Whether Russia eventually attacks Ukraine again from Belarus or not, will depend on the balance of forces that Russia and Ukraine have in the area, he clarified later.
Zhorin suggested Russia might aim to divert Ukrainian forces from other fronts or disrupt key logistical routes from the west of the country.
Ukrainian military analysts noted that by concentrating forces on Belarusian territory, Russia also prevents Ukraine from striking them in advance.
Even if another offensive fails to materialize, the growing presence of Russian troops could necessitate reallocating more Ukrainian resources to critical frontline areas.
Lukashenko’s caution
The threat of an attack during Russian “exercises” in Belarus is “historically known,” President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said at a briefing on Friday.
However, initial reports by Ukrainian intelligence suggest Belarus may conduct 2025 drills farther from the border, possibly to avoid provoking Kyiv, he revealed.
«I think (Belarusian president, Aleksandr) Lukashenko is afraid that we will consider the presence of a Russian contingent as preparation for an offensive,» Zelenskyy noted.
“He knows what we’re capable of if threatened,” the Ukrainian leader said, referencing the August 2024 surprise offensive into Russia’s Kursk region, aimed to disrupt Russian plans of invading new Ukrainian regions.
The risks of involvement by Belarus
Despite the country’s close military cooperation with Russia, Belarus’s army has so far not joined the invasion of Ukraine directly.
Based on Lukashenko’s previous behavior, he will likely seek to delay any attempts to deploy his troops into combat, Yaroslav Chornogor, a leading expert on Russia and Belarus at the Ukrainian Prism think tank, told EFE.
“However, some processes may be beyond Lukashenko’s control, because his dependence on the Kremlin is only increasing,” Chornogor underlined.
If at some point the Kremlin considers it necessary to pressure Belarus into joining the war, then it will do so, the Ukrainian expert is certain. The “security guarantees” agreement between Belarus and Russia removed the last hurdles to this in March, he noted.
Chornogor also sees increasing evidence that Russia can eventually use Belarus to scale up its ongoing aggression and threaten the Baltic Countries and, potentially, Poland, apart from Ukraine.
State propaganda in Belarus is depicting Poland and Lithuania as a vital threat, which may make Belarusians more open to aggression against their NATO neighbors than against Ukraine, Chornogor noted. EFE
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