By Rostyslav Averchuk
Lviv (EFE).- Despite exhaustion and soldier shortages, the Ukrainian army is holding the front line against Russia’s continued attacks as the invasion enters its fifth year. Meanwhile, Moscow hopes to achieve battlefield objectives, and Kyiv anticipates the success of its new defense minister’s plan.
While Ukrainian and US officials are scheduled to meet on Thursday, and a trilateral meeting with Russia is planned for next week, the balance of forces on the battlefield remains a key factor in determining the outcome of the war.
With Moscow insisting on achieving full control of Donbas and Kyiv unwilling to cede even more territory without firm security guarantees from foreign partners, most Ukrainians expect hostilities to continue throughout 2026, as Russia is likely preparing for yet another attempt to break through Ukrainian defenses.
Current situation
Despite weather swings, from severe frosts to thaws flooding trenches, Russian forces launch over 100 daily assaults along the eastern and southern front. Advances, concentrated in Donetsk, remain slow, as Ukrainian artillery and drones repel infantry effectively.
Russia captured 33 square kilometers (20 square miles) in the third week of February, showing its worst result since the start of 2026, according to Oleksandr Kovalenko of the Information Resistance Group.
Ukraine’s counterattacks have improved positions in Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk regions, retaking over 400 square kilometers (248 square miles) in recent weeks, according to Kyiv.
Although few analysts foresee a broader counteroffensive due to Russia’s superior manpower and aviation capabilities, this development has strengthened tactical positions near the critical logistical hub of Hulyaipole and reduced the threat to regional capitals.
Future and threats
Russian forces will likely intensify their attempts to break through Ukrainian defenses and capture more ground once the weather improves in the spring.
“Vladimir Putin seeks a clear victory to justify all the losses the war has brought to Russia,” Mykola Bielieskov, analyst at the Institute for Strategic Studies, told Ukrainian Radio.
However, Russia lacks the forces to achieve large advances, Oleksiy Melnyk, a former aide to the Minister of Defense and analyst at the Razumkov Center, told EFE.
Despite all the challenges Ukraine faces in mobilizing enough soldiers and receiving weapons from its partners, Melnyk considers that its defense will persevere throughout 2026.
At the same time, the comparison of lost and captured territory conceals a more complex dynamic of innovations and countermeasures that reshape the battlefield every several months.
According to reports from the frontline, the key threat lies in the increase in the use of cheap suicide drones that now routinely reach 20 kilometers (12 miles) beyond Ukraine’s forward defense lines, making each supply or evacuation mission very risky.
Tunnels made of fishing nets now shield civilians and logistics in frontline areas, but may prove insufficient against the expanding Rubikon, a key Russian drone unit, and Ukraine will seek to expand its own drone forces.
Adapting
Although Ukraine comes up with innovative solutions, such as drones, Russia quickly copies them and scales them up across its entire army.
Much hope for changing the situation rests with Mykhailo Fedorov, the new Defense Minister, who has a background in digital technologies.
According to the plan he announced on Tuesday, Ukraine will aim to increase Russian casualties by about one third through several organizational changes, whose details remain unknown.
If Russia’s losses rise from the current 156 soldiers to 200 soldiers for a captured square kilometer of captured territory, its army will not be able to advance, according to Fedorov.
In this case, Moscow will have to consider reverting to obligatory mobilization instead of relying on financial and other recruitment methods. Russia will try to avoid this after the 2022 mobilization proved to be deeply unpopular, analyst Oleksiy Melnyk noted.
Facing difficulties on the battlefield, Russia will continue its attacks against civilian infrastructure and population, which makes the strengthening of air defenses, as well as long-range strikes against Russian territory, other key elements of Ukraine’s defense. EFE
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