Moscow, Aug 23 (EFE).- The Ukraine war will reach the three-and-a-half-year mark on Sunday with no indication that Russian President Vladimir Putin is interested in ending the conflict, insisting instead that victory is within reach despite limited gains on the Donetsk front.
According to US media reports, Putin told US President Donald Trump at a recent meeting in Alaska that Moscow could soon take control of all of Donbas.
Ukraine, however, continues to resist.
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy admits his army, weakened by a chronic shortage of manpower, lacks the means to retake lost ground, but rejects Moscow’s territorial demands, which he says would amount to surrender.
Territorial balance Russian forces currently occupy around 115,000 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory, about 20 percent of the country’s total area and less than the size of Greece or Nicaragua.
Roughly one third of that, including Crimea and parts of Donetsk and Luhansk, was already under Moscow’s control before the invasion in February 2022.
In Donbas, Russia now holds about 46,500 square kilometers but still needs roughly 6,500 more to claim the entire region.
Moscow has also seized some 400 square kilometers in the northern regions of Kharkiv and Sumy to establish what it calls a “security buffer.”
Meanwhile, Ukrainian forces lost control in May of the Russian territory they briefly captured in Kursk in August 2024.
War of attrition Days before the Alaska summit, Russian troops launched a push in Donetsk, advancing up to ten kilometers in some sectors.
Kyiv insists those incursions were repelled, though Moscow claims to have captured several localities between Pokrovsk and Kostantynivka.
The Russians have yet to besiege Pokrovsk, their main summer objective, but are fighting on its southern outskirts and heavily bombarding Dobropilia, a key road junction toward Kramatorsk.
Analysts warn that at this pace, it may take Moscow many more months just to approach Ukraine’s fortified strongholds in northern Donetsk.
Zelenskyy has dismissed claims that Donbas could fall by year’s end, estimating instead that Russia may need up to four more years to achieve such a goal.
No quick peace Experts on both sides see little chance of negotiations in the short term and predict the fighting is likely to extend into 2026. Putin has shown no willingness to meet Zelenskyy except to discuss Ukraine’s surrender.
At the Alaska summit, the Kremlin leader indicated readiness to address security guarantees for Kyiv, but Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov this week rejected any arrangement excluding Russia or allowing Western troops in Ukraine.
Russia’s war effort faces potential obstacles The only real obstacles to Russia’s military machine are the threat of a recession and US tariffs on its oil exporters: China and India.
Trump does not appear willing to penalize China, which has, in fact, increased its purchases of Russian crude.
India, however, faces a 50 perecnt US tariff that will take effect on Aug. 27. Even so, after a pause of several weeks, New Delhi has resumed contracting new oil shipments.
According to the government, the Russian economy is on the brink of recession, with only the military sector still expanding. The press reports that authorities may be forced to raise taxes, risking greater public discontent over the war.
Meanwhile, the budget deficit has already surpassed 2 percent of GDP, and economic growth slowed to 1.2 percent in the first half of this year, down from 4.3 percent in 2024. EFE
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