By Lobsang DS Subirana
Bangkok, Feb 5 (EFE).- Thailand heads to the polls Sunday at a pivotal moment for its fragile democracy.
Long accustomed to political volatility and military coups, the country is again seeing conservative and reformist forces square off in an election widely expected to end with coalition-building rather than a single-party majority.
Shaped by the outsized influence of the military and the monarchy, Thailand faces a closely contested vote in which opinion polls suggest the current front-runners – the conservative Bhumjaithai Party and the reformist People’s Party – are unlikely to secure an outright majority, forcing them to seek governing partners.
The snap election was called by Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul, leader of Bhumjaithai, who took office in September after receiving backing from the People’s Party on the condition that early elections be held. His predecessor, Paetongtarn Shinawatra, was removed by the Constitutional Court over criticism of the military.
Below are key issues and players shaping the vote.
The People’s Party: Isolated in politics, buoyed by youth support
The reformist movement that became the People’s Party burst onto Thailand’s political scene in 2018. It has since been forced to rebrand twice amid legal pressure, but it has proved a disruptive force – particularly after winning the most seats in the 2023 election, even though it was blocked from forming a government by the conservative Senate.
That victory reshaped the political landscape and pushed traditional parties – including the Shinawatra family’s populist, center-right Pheu Thai Party and factions linked to the military establishment – to cooperate in response to the reformist challenge.The movement appears reinvigorated under the leadership of 38-year-old software engineer Natthaphong “Teng” Ruengpanyawut, who has focused his campaign on constitutional reform and demilitarization, using digital outreach that resonates with Gen Z and Millennials such as himself.
However, his insistence on what he calls “principled politics” has left him at a disadvantage. By refusing to work with parties tied to corruption or the military, Natthaphong has become isolated in the lower house, reaching only a tactical agreement with Anutin to force the early election.
Anutin and transactional stability
While reformists emphasize ideology, Anutin and his Bhumjaithai Party have gained momentum through regional patronage networks and by stoking nationalism amid renewed flare-ups in Thailand’s long-running territorial dispute with Cambodia.
Anutin has positioned himself as a dealmaker, absorbing pro-military factions under a banner of “Promises and Action.” The party’s strength flows through provincial power networks known as Baan Yai, or “Big Houses,” in contrast to Natthaphong’s largely urban support base in Bangkok.
“We are a party of action. We can work with anyone,” Anutin has said – a message that appeals to voters wary of the People’s Party’s radicalism but also distrustful of a direct return to military rule.
The race for 251 seats
The arithmetic of power has changed since 2023. With the Senate – previously appointed by the military – no longer voting in the selection of the prime minister, the focus is solely on the 500-seat House of Representatives, where a simple majority of 251 seats is needed to form a government.
According to the latest projections from the state-run National Institute of Development Administration, the People’s Party leads with about 34.2 percent support, followed by Bhumjaithai at 22.6 percent and a resurgent Pheu Thai at 16.2 percent. No party is expected to govern alone, leaving three main coalition scenarios.
Coalition options
One option is a “Democratic Bloc” alliance between the People’s Party and Pheu Thai. But that partnership would face structural tensions, as the People’s Party would likely emerge with more seats, relegating Pheu Thai to a junior role for the first time in its history.
A second scenario, dubbed the “Conservative Shield,” would see Bhumjaithai lead a coalition of traditionalist forces. Though weaker in national polls, this bloc draws strength from provincial networks that often outperform expectations on election day.
The third – and most debated – coalition is a “Grand Compromise” between Bhumjaithai and Pheu Thai, excluding the People’s Party and relying on power bases in the provinces and the rural northeast.
The constitutional referendum
Sunday’s vote is amplified by a simultaneous national referendum asking whether Thailand should draft a new constitution. The current charter was written and approved in 2017 under the former military government that ruled from 2014 to 2019.
For the People’s Party, a decisive “yes” vote would provide the political capital to dismantle judicial mechanisms that have frequently intervened in civilian governments. Conservatives, by contrast, see the plebiscite as a threat to the system of oversight maintained since the 2014 coup.
For many Thais, the referendum represents the real election: the choice between a permanent shift toward full democracy or the continuation of the current hybrid system that has defined politics for the past seven years. EFE
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