Bangkok, Feb 7 (EFE).– Thailand heads to the polls on Sunday in snap elections dominated by a choice between political continuity and reform.
The conservative Bhumjaithai Party (BJT) and the reformist People’s Party (PP) have emerged as frontrunners in the vote that coincides with a referendum on revising the constitution enacted under the former military junta (2014–2019).
Opinion polls suggest the People’s Party is on track to secure the largest share of seats, followed by Bhumjaithai, led by interim Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul.
However, neither party is expected to win an outright majority in the House of Representatives, making post-election coalition negotiations inevitable.
In a country where the military and the monarchy have long exerted decisive influence, the People’s Party has moderated its rhetoric on sensitive issues to avoid the judicial pressure that led to the dissolution of its predecessor, Move Forward (Avanzar), over proposals to reform the lèse-majesté law protecting the monarchy.
A renewed opening for reformists
In the 2023 elections, Move Forward stunned observers by winning the most votes, only to be blocked from forming a government by the conservative Senate, then appointed by the military and empowered to vote for the prime minister.
That dynamic has since changed.
A new Senate, selected through an indirect process in June 2024, no longer participates in choosing the head of government, a shift that could ease a reformist path to power.
The People’s Party closed its campaign on Friday at a packed sports arena in Bangkok, ahead of the legally mandated reflection period on Saturday, when political events and alcohol sales are banned.
“Thailand faces very serious structural problems, and the People’s Party is the only party willing to question them,” said Kokin, a 30-year-old voter, while Pinda, 38, said the reformists are “the only ones who speak directly to the working class.”
The conservative alternative
The elections were called by Anutin after four months leading a minority government, which he formed with the backing of the People’s Party under a commitment to hold early polls.
Anutin assumed office following the removal of two prime ministers from the Pheu Thai party, Srettha Thavisin and Paetongtarn Shinawatra, who were ousted in 2024 and 2025 respectively in separate, controversial rulings by the Constitutional Court.
Throughout the campaign, Anutin has leaned heavily on patriotic rhetoric, against the backdrop of renewed tensions with Cambodia over a long-standing border dispute.
Two rounds of border clashes in 2025 left around 100 people dead.
Once a regional force and political kingmaker, Bhumjaithai has expanded its national reach by absorbing influential local political clans, strengthening its electoral prospects.
“Anutin has positioned BJT as the only stable conservative option without the stigma of the 2014 coup leaders,” said Thai academic Pavin Chachavalpongpun of Kyoto University.
A decisive constitutional vote
Sunday’s elections are further magnified by a parallel referendum asking voters whether Thailand should draft a new constitution, replacing the charter approved in 2017 under military rule.
For the People’s Party, a strong “yes” vote, anticipated by polls, would provide momentum to dismantle judicial mechanisms frequently used to constrain civilian governments.
Conservatives, by contrast, view the referendum as a threat to the system of oversight entrenched since the 2014 coup.
For many voters, the referendum represents the true choice: a decisive step toward full democracy or the continuation of Thailand’s hybrid political order. EFE
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