Tokyo, Feb 8 (EFE).- Exit polls released after voting ended on Sunday project a decisive victory for Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s Liberal Democratic Party, potentially giving the ruling coalition more than 300 seats in Japan’s powerful lower house.
Estimates by public broadcaster NHK and other media outlets after polling stations closed have all given Takaichi a clear majority.
NHK exit polls indicate that the conservative LDP could secure between 274 and 328 of the 465 seats at stake in the lower house, the most powerful chamber of Japan’s parliament.
These projections would put Takaichi well above the absolute majority threshold of 233 seats that she set as her benchmark for staying in office, although official results are not expected until Monday.
Her coalition partner, the Japan Innovation Party (Ishin), is forecast to win between 28 and 38 seats, which would bring the ruling bloc’s total to well over 300 lawmakers.
“I believe the public felt and understood the determination of our prime minister. Now we have a strong mandate after these elections, and we will continue with our policies,” Defence Minister Shinjiro Koizumi, a former LDP leadership contender, told NHK.
Other media echoed NHK’s projections.
Kyodo News reported that the LDP would win “at least” 233 seats, and 261 together with Ishin, while Jiji Press said the ruling coalition could reach around 300 seats.
“We are still in the process of counting votes,” LDP Secretary-General Shunichi Suzuki cautioned in remarks to NHK.
The main setback appears to be for the newly formed Centrist Reformist Alliance, which brings together the Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP) and the Buddhist Komeito party.
Komeito, a long-time LDP ally, broke away following Takaichi’s election as party leader.
According to NHK projections, the alliance would secure between 37 and 91 seats, a sharp decline from the 172 seats the two parties held prior to the dissolution of the lower house.
Hiromasa Nakano, acting secretary-general of Komeito and co-leader of the alliance, said the bloc must accept the outcome “with seriousness and humility,” noting that vote counting is still ongoing in many districts.
If the ruling coalition surpasses 310 seats, a two-thirds majority, it would gain the power to override upper house rejections, where the LDP and Ishin remain in the minority, a key condition for pursuing constitutional reform.
The populist, anti-immigration Sanseito party is projected to win between five and 14 seats, up from the two it held previously.
Party leader Sohei Kamiya said the group had “received a great boost,” but acknowledged that it failed to expand as much as expected due to the LDP’s surge.
The election day was marked by heavy snowfall across parts of the country, forcing some polling stations to open late or close early. Despite this, early voting exceeded levels seen in previous elections.
As of 19:30 local time (10:30 GMT), turnout stood at 28.18 percent, 3.31 percentage points lower than in the 2024 general elections, while more than 27 million voters, around 26 percent of the electorate, cast ballots in advance.
Takaichi, who has enjoyed high approval ratings since taking office in October after winning the LDP leadership race, framed the election as a referendum on her mandate and pledged to resign if her coalition failed to secure an absolute majority. EFE
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