Paris, Mar 12 (EFE).– The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz due to the war in the Middle East will cause a collapse in global oil supply of 8 million barrels per day (mb/d) in March, forcing it to substantially revise its forecasts for the entire year.
In its monthly report on the oil market published on Thursday, the IEA highlights that this conflict is causing the largest supply disruption in history.
It adds that with an average of 98.8 mb/d this month, oil output will fall to the level it had in the first quarter of 2022. This drop would represent a 7.5 percent decrease compared to the supply in February.
According to the agency’s data, the flows that normally passed through the Strait of Hormuz (15 million barrels per day of crude oil and 5 million barrels per day of refined products) have been reduced to less than 10 percent.
These losses can only be partially offset in the short term by increased production from some non-OPEC producers, primarily the United States, Canada, as well as Russia and Kazakhstan, which will recover some of the losses suffered in February.
On Wednesday, the IEA announced that its 32 member countries will release up to 400 million barrels from their strategic reserves, the largest such operation in its history, to try to compensate for the disruption in supply through the Strait of Hormuz and calm the market.
Markets had priced in the IEA’s decision to draw on its strategic reserves since Monday, which had driven down the price of a barrel from its peak in the early hours of that day when Brent crude nearly reached $120.
When the release of 400 million barrels was announced on Wednesday, the price briefly fell below $90.
However, in the following hours, it climbed back above $100 amid uncertainty about the duration of the war and how long the Strait of Hormuz would remain blocked. Early Thursday morning, Brent crude was still trading above $95.
In the absence of a swift resolution to the conflict, the agency warns that this partial release of a third of its total strategic reserves remains a provisional measure and that the final impact of the conflict on the oil and gas market will depend on the damage to energy infrastructure and the duration of the blockade of this vital maritime passage.
The IEA estimates that for this entire year, oil supply will increase by an average of 1.1 million barrels per day (mb/d) compared to 2025, reaching 107.2 mb/d. This represents a significant downward revision from the 2.4 mb/d increase it anticipated just a month ago, before the Middle East erupted with the US and Israeli attacks on Iran.
This growth will be entirely driven by producers outside the OPEC cartel, particularly the US and Brazil.
Regarding demand, the report’s authors have also significantly revised their expectations downward, now forecasting a decrease of around 1 million barrels per day in March and April compared to their previous forecast just a month ago.
The fundamental reason is that less kerosene is being consumed because air traffic in the Middle East has been largely paralyzed, with implications for the rest of the world as well, and because the disruption of liquefied natural gas (LNG) flows through the Strait of Hormuz has caused severe disruptions in the supply chain for liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) production.
Furthermore, in the medium term, the IEA anticipates a change in consumer behavior worldwide due to rising fuel prices.
Ultimately, global oil demand will increase by only 644,000 barrels per day on average throughout 2026 (0.6 percent, after having risen 0.8 percent in 2025) to 104.77 million barrels per day (mb/d). This is 210,000 barrels per day less than expected in February. EFE
ac/pd
