By Aydin Shayegan
Tehran, Feb 21 (EFE).- The likelihood of military confrontation between Iran and the United States now exceeds the chances of reaching a nuclear agreement, analysts warn, citing what they describe as strategic “miscalculations” by Tehran and escalating pressure from Washington.
US President Donald Trump has given Iran a 10- to 15-day deadline to reach a deal following two rounds of indirect negotiations mediated by Oman in Muscat and Geneva on Feb. 6 and 17.
At the same time, Trump has said he is considering limited military strikes against Iran, while Tehran insists it is prepared for any scenario and plans to present its own proposal in the coming days.
Iran’s expected proposal is likely to focus strictly on the nuclear issue, rejecting demands for zero uranium enrichment and excluding negotiations over its ballistic missile program and support for regional allies such as Hezbollah and Hamas, issues Washington insists must be part of any comprehensive agreement.
Ali Vaez, director of the Iran Project at the International Crisis Group, warned that the risk of conflict is high due to what he sees as a serious misreading in Tehran.
“The Islamic Republic is making a miscalculation by assuming the United States does not genuinely seek an agreement and that negotiations are merely a tactic to justify war,” Vaez said.
“As a result, Iran has not taken the talks seriously enough and has not offered unprecedented concessions.”
Political analyst Mashalá Shamsolwaezin, however, argues that Washington itself is not truly seeking compromise.
“The United States follows a pattern: it first describes the situation as optimistic, then sends positive signals, later raises its demands and conditions, and finally sets a deadline. If Iran does not yield, it resorts to military action,” he told the newspaper Etemad.
Despite the rising tensions, Shamsolwaezin said Iran “is not defenseless” and could “seriously confront US power,” including possessing capabilities to target naval forces.
His remarks echo those of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who recently downplayed the deployment of the US aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln to the Persian Gulf and suggested it could be sunk in the event of war.
“An aircraft carrier is certainly a dangerous machine, but more dangerous is the weapon capable of sending it to the bottom of the sea,” Khamenei warned.
Vaez described such rhetoric as yet another miscalculation, arguing that Tehran may be overestimating its leverage by assuming the US would avoid prolonged conflict because Trump seeks to steer clear of a costly war in the Middle East.
At the same time, Iran’s leadership faces domestic pressures. The clerical establishment risks alienating its core supporters if it compromises on what it considers ideological red lines, including limitations on nuclear and defensive capabilities.
“They are not even willing to make symbolic gestures that could extend the life of the political system,” Vaez said, referring to speculation that Washington could ultimately seek regime change, something Trump has suggested “would be the best thing.”
Heightened Military Alert in the Persian Gulf
The United States is mounting what officials describe as its largest military deployment in the Middle East since the 2003 Iraq war, seeking to pressure Iran into signing an agreement.
At least a dozen warships, including the USS Abraham Lincoln, along with military aircraft and missile defense systems, are now stationed in the region. A second carrier strike group led by the USS Gerald R. Ford is also heading toward Middle Eastern waters.
Iran has responded with its own military exercises in the Sea of Oman and the Strait of Hormuz, including joint drills with Russia and maneuvers by the Revolutionary Guard that temporarily disrupted traffic through the strategic waterway, through which roughly 20 percent of the world’s oil supply passes.
Iranian authorities have warned they would retaliate forcefully against any aggression, including by targeting US bases in the region.
Meanwhile, regional powers such as Qatar, Oman, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey are intensifying diplomatic efforts to prevent war, urging both sides to resolve the nuclear dispute through negotiations.
UN Secretary-General António Guterres has also called on the parties to “maintain dialogue channels” and to “continue with diplomacy.” EFE
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