By Rostyslav Averchuk
Lviv (EFE).- As Ukrainians commemorate the victims of the Russian strike against Mariupol’s Drama Theater with hundreds of civilians inside four years ago, the exact toll of the attack and the siege remains unknown due to the ongoing occupation and the destruction of evidence.
Thousands of displaced residents of Mariupol and other Ukrainians attended rallies on Monday to light candles and share lingering pain over the deadly strike by two 500-kg aviation bombs, which became emblematic of the destruction brought by Russia to the predominantly Russian-speaking city in the Donetsk region in the spring of 2022.
“March is when most residents share their pain about the deaths of their loved ones,” said Alevtyna Shvetsova, a journalist from Mariupol, at a rally near Lviv Opera Theater, where the sign “Children” in Russian, which was painted in large letters in front of the Mariupol Theater in a plea for mercy to Russian pilots, was recreated.
A likely war crime
Shvetsova told EFE she walked on foot out of the besieged city on the day of the strike, Mar. 16, 2022, and witnessed a huge column of smoke rise from the theater.
“Four years later, many still post in online groups dedicated to the search for the killed ones, sharing that they don’t know what happened to their bodies and where they were buried,” Shvetsova underlined.
The exact number of people killed in the theater remains unknown now that its debris has been demolished and a new structure has been built and inaugurated by Russia in late 2025 in what Ukraine sees as a way to conceal evidence and rewrite the city’s identity.
The estimates provided by local authorities, human rights organizations, and journalistic investigations range from over a dozen to as high as 600.
Analysis by Human Rights Watch, SITU Research, and Truth Hounds sees the attack as a Russian war crime, given that no Ukrainian military personnel were present in the theater, which served as a shelter for hundreds of locals whose homes had been destroyed.
An attacked shelter
According to the local volunteers’ register, over a thousand people are likely to have stayed at the theater. On the day before the attack, hundreds left along a makeshift evacuation corridor, allowing some to move to the bomb shelter in the basement.
However, many stayed in the auditorium and were buried under the rubble or pierced with fragments after two bombs fell through the roof, according to testimonies.
“We could have been there too because the theater was designated as a gathering point for the evacuation, yet we decided to stay at home, which probably saved our lives,” Oksana Hnatyshyn, director of the Mariupol Art School, relocated to Lviv, told EFE.
She noted that while the strike against the iconic theater was especially cruel, it was dangerous “in every corner of Mariupol” as the Russians bombed it with no hindrance after destroying local air defenses.
“The sound of Russian planes was driving me crazy,” she shared, noting that the month in the besieged city was filled with “constant fear of death, hunger, cold, and the lack of water, communication, and basic hygiene.”
An uncertain toll
Nothing could offer protection against bombs and missiles, Hnatyshyn said, as entire buildings folded under the strikes.
Based on the satellite images of graves that sprang up around Mariupol in the months following its capture by Russia, Truth Hounds, an investigative NGO, counted at least 8,034 victims.
However, this number is “a significant underestimate,” it warned, with many bodies likely never recovered from among the debris or numerous makeshift graves.
Only 1,348 verified deaths are included in the official count of the civilian victims of the Russian invasion by the United Nations, currently at over 15,000, and the organization recognizes that the omission of many deaths in Mariupol and other cities captured by Russia significantly understates the impact of the aggression on civilians. EFE
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