India Isolated: Hasina’s downfall strips New Delhi of Key South Asian ally

By Hugo Barcia New Delhi, Aug 10 (EFE).— The ouster of Sheikh Hasina’s government in Bangladesh is the latest to slip from India’s grasp in South Asia.

Recent government changes in Afghanistan, the Maldives, Nepal, and now Bangladesh have significantly eroded India’s influence in the region that it once dominated.

Hasina, a long-time ally of India since her rise to power in 2009, was ousted after five weeks of chaotic student protests, leaving over 400 dead due to brutal police crackdowns.

Her all-powerful government, closely aligned with New Delhi on economic and foreign policy and united against Islamist extremism, had been a linchpin in India’s regional strategy.

Communists, an anti-India campaign, and the Taliban

India’s influence had already begun to wane despite its so-called neighborhood first policy.In Nepal, KP Sharma Oli, leader of the Communist Party of Nepal-Unified Marxist Leninist (CPN-UML), ascended to power, strengthening ties with China through trade agreements.Similarly, the Maldives saw President Mohamed Muizzu take office after an “India Out” campaign, advocating closer relations with China and straining ties with New Delhi.

Ties between New Delhi and Male have remained tense ever since, marked by episodes such as the Maldives’ request that India withdraw its military from the archipelago and the mockery of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi by several Maldivian government ministers over images posted on his X handle.

This domino effect began in 2021 when the Taliban replaced the Afghan government, erasing the $2 billion investment India made during the US-backed Kabul government’s 20-year tenure.

Adding to India’s regional woes is its historic enmity with Pakistan, dating back to their independence from the British Empire in 1947. This string of setbacks leaves India increasingly isolated in a region where it once held sway.

Reputation Crisis

Foreign policy analyst Mohamed Zeeshan attributes India’s reputation crisis to its aggressive regional influence, which has backfired.Zeeshan advocated that India must allow others the flexibility to balance relations between New Delhi and Beijing just as it does with Russia and the US at the same time.

“Other countries should have the right to be allies with China,” he told EFE.

He said India should support democratic reforms abroad rather than exploit instability, suggesting that in Bangladesh, India should have urged Hasina to implement democratic reforms instead of backing her unconditionally. «It would have been positive if it (India) had also pushed Hasina to carry out democratic reforms and strengthen institutions.»

In the wake of Hasina’s fall, violence has targeted properties belonging to her Awami League and some Hindu sites, according to local media.Farwa Aamer, director of initiatives for South Asia at the Asia Society, noted that India must adjust its approach to the new Bangladeshi government to regain trust.

However, both analysts agree it is difficult to predict how these shifts will impact India, especially as New Delhi seeks a stronger global role, balancing against China’s influence.

As India attempts to lead the Global South, it has taken several steps backward in recent months, leaving only tiny Bhutan and a precariously balanced Sri Lanka as its remaining allies in the region. EFE

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